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Ignore the Bounce, the Financial System is in Big Trouble.
By Graham Summers, MBA
Stocks are bouncing this morning on announcements that the Feds will backstop ALL of the deposits at the now bankrupt Silicon Valley Financial Group (SIVB) AKA Silicon Valley bank.
This is a massive mistake. The banking system is in serious trouble and it is not clear that the $25 billion bailout the Feds crafted will be enough to deal with fallout.
One other bank (Signature) has already been closed, while most of the regional banks in California have seen their stocks halted.
What’s causing all of this?
Two things:
1) For the first time in 15 years, depositors can earn 4% or 5% in yield.
2) Banks are up to the eyeballs in garbage loans made during the pandemic.
Regarding #1, most banks are now paying out something like 0.05% or lower on deposits. Meanwhile, money market accounts and short-term T-bills are paying 4% of 5%.
As a result of this depositors are pulling money out of banks. And because the banks have to maintain leverage ratios based on capital requirements, the banks are being forced to sell assets (deleverage).
We are not talking about a small amount of money either. There is $5.5 trillion in deposits in small/ regional banks in the U.S.
This brings us to #2.
SIVB went bananas with its lending following the pandemic courtesy of all the bail-out/ stimulus money. SIVB was the bank for (h/t DiscloseTV):
1) Some 1,500 climate and energy-tech companies.
2) More than 60% of all community-based solar financing.
3) Countless “woke” programs that financed politically-tied entities/ startups.
Look, a bank can lend money to whoever it likes… but when you throw lending standards out the window and start loaning money based solely on political ideology (as opposed to whether or not the person/ business could ever pay you back) it’s a recipe for disaster.
By doing this, SIVB went from the 42nd largest bank to the 15th largest bank in the U.S. in the span of THREE YEARS. The chart below is not of a tech start-up or micro-cap… it’s that of a BANK. Yes, it went from $150 per share to $750 per share in less than two years.
Which brings us to today.
SIVB is NOT the only bank with these problems, just as Bear Stearns wasn’t the only bank with exposure to subprime mortgage loans in 2008. There is no easy way out of this mess.
Remember, there are over $5.5 TRILLION in deposits sitting in regional banks in the U.S. The Fed thinks that a $25 billion bailout fund will be enough to prop up the banks as a major percentage of this leaves to seek higher yields.
Good luck with that!
Oh… and by the way… our proprietary Bear Market Trigger… the one that predicted the Tech Crash as well as the Great Financial Crisis… is on a confirmed SELL signal for the first time since 2008.
If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.
It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.
In recent years angry protesters across the United States have toppled several statues depicting historical figures from America’s past. Much of this anger is driven by outrage at the atrocities in which these historical figures were involved. Unfortunately, much of this anger has been targeted at individuals whose contribution to American history isn’t completely negative in the eyes of the majority of Americans. Even several likenesses of the Founding Fathers have been toppled at the whim of some vehement mob1,2.
Discourse in many intellectual circles regarding the Founding Fathers has devolved from critique to outright condemnation over the last few decades. This condemnation generally springs from the fact that some of the Founding Fathers were slave owners and that slavery was prevalent in the early United States. Some scholars even make the argument that the United States was truly founded when the first African slaves were brought to the New World3.
But is it fair to completely condemn the founders of our nation for participating in an institution that pre-existed their own births? Should we discard all of the contributions of the founders because they owned slaves and lived in a society where slavery was legal? More generally, how should we evaluate historical figures that made meaningful, positive contributions but often behaved in immoral ways and participated in common societal practices we now deem despicable? Our aim is neither blind damnation or veneration of any individual in question. Instead, it is to paint a fair, historically accurate depiction of the person and to carefully evaluate their lasting effects on history. After all, history is about people, and people are complex, not merely one-dimensional, cartoonish heroes and villains.
The Common and The Uncommon Act
One model by which we can begin to judge historical figures is by considering what actions and behaviors the individual committed that were common to the time in which they lived and which actions were uncommon to their time. After all, it is de facto the uncommon acts an individual carries out that make them an historical figure. For instance, in the cases of Thomas Jefferson and George Washington, owning slaves was common amongst the wealthy colonists during America’s founding. However, there is only one author of the Declaration Independence and only one first President of the United States. Toppling statues of Jefferson and Washington to protest against their ownership of slaves is to mistake, or perhaps intentionally distort, the true reason why statues of Jefferson and Washington exist in the first place: these statues do not exist because they were slave owners, but because they were Founding Fathers and early Presidents of the American republic.
We can apply the same method to evaluate figures we agree contributed negatively to history as well. For example, a number of tyrannical dictators had qualities which at face value we agree to be healthy and admirable in a person. Loving dogs4, consciously eating5, and having a love for the arts6,7 are all generally viewed as positive traits in someone. However, these traits are common and not at all the reason we learn about Hitler and Stalin in history class. We study Hitler and Stalin in order to learn valuable lessons about how to prevent and combat tyranny because of the unforgivable atrocities these men committed.
The Moral Arc
The Moral Arc is referred to in an often paraphrased quote, and a personal favorite of Martin Luther King Jr, by 19th century unitarian minister Theodore Parker:
“Look at the facts of the world. You see a continual and progressive triumph of the right. I do not pretend to understand the moral universe, the arc is a long one, my eye reaches but little ways. I cannot calculate the curve and complete the figure by the experience of sight; I can divine it by conscience. But from what I see I am sure it bends towards justice. Things refuse to be mismanaged long. Jefferson trembled when he thought of slavery and remembered that God is just. Ere long all America will tremble.”8.
Theodore Parker
Parker’s quote confidently conveys a sense that despite temporary moral failures and setbacks, humanity proceeds on a path that ultimately leads to a more just and righteous world. However, the Moral Arc is not a strictly defined concept. In fact it’s an explicitly vague and nebulous concept which is defined subjectively and while Parker might suggest that the trajectory towards justice has been the norm over the past few centuries, we should not mistake that with the belief that such a trajectory is inevitable independent of human action. Though humans are inherently subjective and cannot escape this subjectivity when making judgements about the past, a line must be drawn in order to determine what is good and what is bad in order to judge history at all. Thus, an individual or society must have a formulation of what constitutes justice. We will refer to this formulation of justice and the Moral Arc.
Once we have extracted out the rare achievements or actions of a historical figure we may consider what effect these actions had on the Moral Arc. Did these actions bend towards or away from justice? In the case of Washington and Jefferson, their unique contributions to history resulted in the founding of a new nation, the proliferation of ideas of liberty, the equal value of all citizens under the law, and the implementation of a legal framework based on English common law. The combination of these would eventually lead to the emancipation of slaves and the political enfranchisement of women and minorities. While these men owned slaves and lived in a world which did not recognize women as full citizens, these moral shortcomings are not unique to them. The early colonies had many slave owners who failed to contribute the slightest to the founding of the United States. And so, their names are dust.
A Thought Experiment for Critics
Let’s now consider a thought experiment to demonstrate why it might be reasonable to adopt the proposed model. Imagine it’s two hundred years into the future. The year is 2223 and humanity has flourished beyond our wildest imagination. The resource constraints and concerns of today are long forgotten as man, through science and engineering, has bent nature to his will and largely rid himself of our mundane daily concerns for food, shelter, and warmth, even to a greater extent than we have been able to achieve relative to our prehistoric ancestors.
Long forgotten are the days when man needed to raise, farm, and kill animals for the consumption of meat. Additionally, mankind no longer needs to burn fossil fuels to generate the energy to power its growing civilization. In fact, these practices are now illegal and viewed as barbaric. Would we want the great individuals and their of our time to be forgotten and even demonized simply because they ate steak and drove cars with internal combustion engines? Even when their achievement had nothing to do with eating meat or burning fossil fuels? Clearly, we would not wish for the great individuals of our time to be judged so harshly because they participated in common social norms of their time.
A proper understanding of history does not blame great people for participating in the social norms of their time because social norms evolve over time. Instead, it seeks to understand the unique context of these social norms and celebrates the progress we have made along the winding Moral Arc.
Final Thoughts
The attempt here is to provide a reasoned, logical, even formulaic (likely to a fault) method of judging historical individuals’ contributions and their lasting effects on history. This author suffers no delusions that a reasoned approach such as posited in this article will be adopted by statue-toppling vandals. Therefore, this article is directed not towards those monument defacing delinquents, but towards those ivory tower academics and intellectuals whose soured ideas trickle down to the masses below like a toxic sludge. The academicians who embrace the full condemnation of historical figures without consideration of the times in which those figures lived abandon their responsibility as scholars by adopting naïve, simplistic, and biased worldviews. Future scholarship should seek to properly appreciate the unique times in which many historical figures lived and to understand the complexities of these historical personalities. Such blind condemnation may one day be applied to our own time at the expense of many of recent history’s greatest achievements and the individuals who facilitated those achievements.
Thinking West aims to revive the “Great Conversation” in our digital age through promoting the study of the great books of the western world, classical approaches to education, and through thoughtful commentary on current events, history, philosophy, culture, education, and religion.
We strive first and foremost to spark an appreciation for the values that built the West. Our content strives for depth and meaning in an era plagued by six second attention spans and clickbait headlines. We challenge ourselves and our readers to read, reflect, and speak out on ideas that matter.
Church of England revs but not as you know them Jamie Franklin and Thomas Pelham crack into the big stories of the week: Matt Hancock's WhatsApp messages reveal that they weren't following "the science" after all but were lying and self-aggrandising all along (we did mention something about something about this some time ago), the "Fat Sex Therapist" suggests that sexual predators such as Bill Cosby could be served by a "sex positive" attitude to consensual date rape, a drag night in St James' Piccadilly, and, in our email of the week, a riposte to the pro-Russian email from last week's episode, arguing against Russia and in favour of Ukraine's cause in the ongoing war. That and much much more as always in this week's episode!
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Hosts James Edwards and Keith Alexander kick off TPC’s March Around the World! During this month-long special series, we will showcase leaders and elected officials from different European nations as we seek to discover how our kinsmen are faring throughout the Western world and beyond. We make our first stop in England with Nick Griffin, our favorite former Member of European Parliament.
The same disappearance of white people is happening in other movie and film remakes, in corporate ads, in the shelving or burning of classic works of literature.I read of plans to turn James Bond into a black woman.
White people are having their culture disappeared.I have reported the reinterpretation of the artistic accomplishments of white artists by museums as racist works.The history of Western civilization has been rewritten in the most blatantly false ways, such as the New York Times’ 1619 Project.The universities in the US and UK have become anti-white propaganda ministries.Statues and memorials are being removed, and the removals erase history.One of the Cambridge University colleges removed a memorial to the founder of statistics and one of its own leaders because he was interested in racial differences in intelligence, a legitimate study at the time but now suppressed as racist.Some American universities are removing donors names from buildings on the charge that the donor was a racist. As all white people are by definition racist, this policy should discourage future donations.We see the black demonstrators who looted and burned business districts not held accountable but given monetary payouts for being confronted by police, while white supporters of Trump are imprisoned on false charges of insurrection.And all the while we hear about “white privilege” while white people are forced by employers to take “sensitivity training” and accept that blacks and sexual perverts have preferential treatment in university admissions, employment, and promotion.Everyone who protests the exclusion of white people from the 14th Amendment and equal rights under the law is branded a white supremacist and a threat to democracy.
Everywhere white peoples are being deracinated and perversity normalized.White people are being overwhelmed with guilt.Their confidence is destroyed.White children are taught in public schools that they are racists, and the few parents willing to do anything about it find it difficult.Western governments lack the confidence and will to defend their borders from immigrant-invaders and have become Towers of Babel instead of nations of white ethnicities. There are reports that in some European countries white men lack the confidence to protect white women from rape and sexual abuse by immigrant-invaders.Politicians and ideologues exploit the diversity and divide and rule with Identity Politics. Demographic forecasts show that every white country is on the path to disappearance.And the disappearance is happeningin the name of diversity.There is plenty of room in the world for diversity, but not within a country.
It is a paradox that while ethnicEuropean culture is being displaced in every Western country, the West is preparing for war against Russia, China, and Iran.As few people in the West are willing to fight these wars, they will be fought with missiles, and it will mean nuclear Armageddon.Isn’t it strange that the US and Europe are so concerned with Ukraine’s borders, but not with their own.Isn’t it strange that the entire Western world has identified democracy with Ukrainian neo-Nazis, but that protesters against stolen elections and vaccination and lockdown mandates are labeled domestic terrorists.Isn’t it strange that with such emphasis on diversity white culture is being erased. Isn’t it strange that US foreign policy is based on the neoconservative ideology that America is the exceptional, indispensable country with a right to world hegemony, while at the same time the majority white population is derided as racists who must be suppressed. This implies that white people are not part of exceptional America.
Most Americans are too insouciant to know what is going on.By the time they are directly affected and realize their situation, it will be too late.
A country is a geographical entity.A nation is an ethnicity–Germans, French, Italians, British, Dutch, Polish.The US consists of all of these and was multi-ethnic at an early stage, but the different ethnicities merged into a common people as they were all a part of Western civilization.Immigrant-invaders from outside the Western tradition have replaced unity with diversity and fractured the cohesiveness of nations, turning them into geographic locations.In the US and UK, universities and schools teach racial hatred of the white majority and gender hatred of men.Movies and books are making these hatreds part of popular culture. Teaching blacks to hate whites and women to hate men is being institutionalized throughout society. The result is that Western societies are set against themselves, destroying the unity needed to control governments. Thus, we see all Western governments becoming more authoritarian.
The failure of Western peoples to protect their own ethnicities is a self-inflicted danger more threatening than the declared external enemies of Russia, China, and Iran.This realization is withheld from Western peoples. Thus, they are doomed.
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Currently, Church of England members of the clergy are not permitted to carry out same-sex marriages, whilst homosexual Anglicans are required to remain celibate. In recent years, however, the Church of Wales, the Scottish Episcopal Church, and, most recently, the Methodist Church, have all embraced marriage equality. In February 2023, the General Synod met to discuss the issue, raising the question across the Anglican Communion and Christendom: should Christianity extend the sacraments to same same-sex marriages?
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.we were, and still are, being treated like a herd of sheep!’
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Applications for Ralston College's MA in the Humanities for 2023 are now open. Dr. Peterson does not teach at Ralston.
https://www.ralston.ac/humanities-ma
Ralston College presents the inaugural lecture of its Chancellor, Dr Jordan B Peterson, delivered at one of the most iconic sites of the ancient world, the Library of Celsus in Ephesus. This ancient city was the birthplace of Heraclitus, the philosopher who first articulated the idea of the Logos, and the final resting place of St. John, who uses that same Greek word to name the Divine Word. In his lecture, Dr Peterson argues that the intelligibility of the world depends on the patterned regularities that are superordinate to our immediate perception; this underlying order - which, from the Greeks onward, we have called Logos - is both the horizon that enables human perception and the basis for the possibilities that we realize in the world. Such an account of our intrinsic, rational, and self-determining capacity constitutes a challenge to the assumptions of many prevailing schools of thought - such as behaviorism, rigid empiricism, and postmodernism - and lays the burden of personal ethics, and the formation of a good society, squarely on the shoulders of the individual.
- Links -
Dr Jordan Peterson
https://www.ralston.ac/people/jordan-...
Dr Stephen Blackwood
https://www.ralston.ac/people/stephen...
Ralston College
ralston.ac
Ralston College Humanities MA
https://www.ralston.ac/humanities-ma
- Chapters -
(0:00) Introduction
(3:30) Welcome to Ephesus
(4:32) Chancellor Jordan Peterson
(6:00) Micro and macrocosms
(8:25) The world of what matters versus world of matter
(11:00) That which dispels pain
(13:36) Pattern regularities
(21:00) Empiricism falls short, magic perception
(25:30) System of values
(32:15) Un-nested values
(36:15) Story and emulation models
(40:12) Narrative and the lens through which we view the world
(41:50) Stalin, minions of hell
(43:00) Divine is that which is deepest
(44:50) Genesis, order and chaos
(47:19) The Spirit that you walk with
(51:00) Culture, spectacle, the kingdom of God
(53:40) Jung, ethical endeavor
(57:35) Truth is the antidote to suffering
NO COPYRIGHT MUSIC FOR VIDEO, Music Link: https://www.patreon.com/no_copyrightm...