BY
Christopher Michael Baksa
By
It’s fundamentally astonishing that so many people in Scotland continue to vote for the SNP.
The SNP's record in government has been dismal. The Scottish NHS is a mess, the once vaunted education system is failing, taxes are higher than in England, local government has been emasculated, anything that can be centralised to Edinburgh has been and cronyism and sleaze is rife.
The SNP and the Scottish government are addicted to populism and gesture politics. In reality, they only have one goal and that is independence. Everything they do is designed to emphasise the difference between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
Yet, were it not for the annual £16 billion fiscal transfer of British taxpayers from Westminster, the Scottish Government would be in real trouble. When ‘full fiscal autonomy’ was proposed at Westminster a few years ago, the SNP MPs ran a mile.
What the SNP have never addressed is what happens if Scotland becomes independent. How would they handle capital flight (already started to happen at the last referendum)? How would they handle massive job losses in the UK civil service departments based in Scotland and in the defence and financial services industries?
How would they replace the £16 billion; tax cuts, service cuts or both? What would the currency be and how would they support that currency? How would they fund a central bank?
And why would you voluntarily cut yourself off from your primary market, rUK, and one which is four times bigger for Scotland than the EU market is? It takes a special kind of idiocy to think that is a good thing.
Neither can the EU be guaranteed to ride to the rescue. It would take several years for Scotland to be admitted and, in any event, why would Scotland want to swap partial control from Westminster to partial control from Brussels? .
Let's consider this and put it into a rough 10-step chronological process of what most normal folk think would happen.
The future Independence referendum returns a pro-indy verdict. Nationalists immediately rejoice. The following day, the sitting UK Prime Minister announces their resignation from the steps of Downing Street.
Behind the scenes, civil servants anticipate protracted negotiations, while large businesses registered in Scotland start considering moving their HQs to England and other countries.
After a few weeks negotiations begin. They’re meant to continue for two years, but this is optimistic. If you thought it was hard for the UK to leave the EU, which it has been part of since the 1970s, think how hard it will be for Scotland to leave the UK, which it has been a part of since the 1700s.
Negotiations lead to announcements, obfuscation, competing information, widespread confusion, and quite possibly feelings of regret from the not-so-committed nationalists.
Nevertheless, negotiations continue.Sticking points, such as the border, currency, divisions of UK national debt, etc. are eventually worked out. This is slightly optimistic.
There is agreement that Scotland will take its share of the UK debt, the border will remain open, and Scotland gets to use Sterling for a few years. This is a scenario where Scotland gets most of what it wants, which isn’t certain.
Two years after the referendum, Scotland becomes independent. UK civil servants leave Scotland, and a new Scottish civil service takes over. There’s a ceremony at Edinburgh Castle. Salmond and Sturgeon look very smug. Prince Charles is there, probably wearing a kilt. The Union Jack is lowered, the Saltire raised, Flower of Scotland is played and nationalists party again.
Months later, the new Scottish government announce cuts to health and education spending. They also announce they’re raising taxes on high earners and corporations. Businesses start to work out ways to avoid these taxes, further reducing Scottish government revenues.
Scotland applies to join the EU. It’s a long process and some member states are unsure about admitting a country with such a large fiscal deficit. Accession takes a lot longer to happen than planned. This too is optimistic.
Scotland continues to use Sterling beyond the agreed time period. They haven’t got the reserves to establish their own currency, and they don’t meet the criteria to join the Eurozone (deficit is too high).
Expected revenue from oil is much much lower than hoped and the Scottish government begins to realise Trident didn’t cost nearly as much as they’d been told, so they’re not saving much there. Scotland doesn’t make enough from oil to fund free prescriptions or free university tuition. Both are either abolished or significantly curtailed.
In the future Scottish election, the new unionist party makes significant gains.Taxes are further increased, this time on incomes and VAT, and more expenditures are cut.
The Scottish government struggles to make ends meet, their deficit is still very large and debt is growing. Unionists start getting used to saying ‘I told you so’, meanwhile the rest of the UK, now on the other side of a tight border, laugh at the nationalists for falling for pro-indy promises in the first place.
In short, Scotland would enter long and complex negotiations, leading up to independence. After independence, the Scottish government starts to be realistic, and realises independence is nowhere near realised as they’d told everyone. At the end of the day, Scotland ends up worse off.
But hey— at least they get their own passports, currency, some worthless oil and feel more represented. Except for the Highlands and Islands, because the Central Belt actually decides all election outcome as South-East England currently does in the UK.
Independence is the solution to nothing.
And we all thought the people voting SNP wanted independence.
