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Can We Return to Demographic Spring?Philosophers seek to explain the world. Our job is to repopulate it
The plummeting birth rate of white Britons and Americans reflects the worldwide crisis of the fast-approaching demographic winter. Having examined the problem and its civilisation-wrecking implications in my previous post, it is now time to look for solutions. Fortunately, a number of far-sighted countries have already made efforts to increase their birth rates, so it is possible to assess the impact of various measures. This makes it possible to design a programme which – if it could be fully implemented – would give those nations wise and healthy enough to do so a serious chance of avoiding the ageing and shrinking population disaster which is already engulfing Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea. The first six policies in this programme have already been implemented in at least one nation, so we have a fair idea of their likely impact. This experience already teaches us that disjointed efforts make very little difference. One-off bonuses especially produce only temporary upticks in the birth rate, which then drops back again rapidly once their impact wears off. Accordingly, this theoretical programme combines both incentives (”carrots”) and penalties (”sticks”) to achieve a sustained Total Fertility Rate (TFR) increase from below 1.5 to approach the 2.1 replacement level. Each measure alone would only raise TFR by a small percentage; their impact is collective. There is no single ‘silver bullet’ for a crisis of the scale we have already examined. We will then move on to two even more radical proposals, designed to undo the damage done by low birth rates since the 1970s. 1. Universal Child Allowance (Carrot) Provide a universal, tax-free monthly child allowance for every child until age 18, with a 50% bonus for third and subsequent children. Rationale: Reduces financial barriers to child-rearing, with bonuses incentivizing larger families. Expected Impact: Based on Poland’s 500+ programme, payments of $125 per child per month would likely increase TFR by ~0.1–0.2 If the USA gave up on elite foreign wars, it could of course afford to be much more generous. 2. Subsidised Childcare and Education (Carrot) Offer free or low-cost childcare and fully subsidised public education, including extracurricular activities, from age 1 to 18. Rationale: Addresses high childcare costs and education expenses. Implementation: Matching support should also be given to home-schoolers, in order to avoid this policy increasing state power in the education system Expected Impact: If capped at 5% of household income, boosts TFR by ~0.1, as seen in Nordic models. 3. Housing and Transport Support for Families (Carrot) Provide interest-free house purchase loans for families with two or more children, with 25% loan forgiveness per child born (up to 100% for four children). Provide help for large families to buy cars with larger seating capacity Rationale: High housing costs deter family expansion. Loan forgiveness incentivizes higher parity births. The problem of transporting more than two children in a conventional car was identified in Hungary as a disincentive to large families which must be addressed. The subsidy should only go to those buying locally-made vehicles. Expected Impact: Increases TFR by ~0.1–0.15, based on Hungary’s CSOK programme. This would be even higher if additional home-extension support is given for fifth children and beyond. 4. Tax Incentives for Larger Families (Carrot) Implement a sliding-scale tax reduction: 10% per child up to three children, 20% for four or more, capped at 50% total reduction. Offer lifetime tax benefits for parents raising three or more children to adulthood. Rationale: Long-term financial relief encourages larger families, unlike temporary bonuses that fade (e.g., Russia’s Maternity Capital). Implementation: Adjust tax codes, ensuring benefits scale with family size. Expected Impact: Increases TFR by ~0.05–0.1, based on France’s tax benefits. 5. Progressive Childless Tax (Stick) Introduce a progressive tax surcharge for childless individuals aged 25–45, with exemptions for medical infertility or economic hardship. Rationale: Creates a financial disincentive for remaining childless. Implementation: Administer through tax systems. Expected Impact: Assuming a tax penalty of 2% of income, increasing by 1% per year, capped at 10%, this is predicted to add ~0.1 to TFR. 6. Economic Penalties for Anti-Family Corporate Practices (Stick) Impose fines on companies with more than 100 employees that fail to provide family-friendly policies (e.g., leave, flexibility). Redirect fines to fund childcare programmes. Corporations should face even tougher penalties for encouraging employees to have abortions. Rationale: Penalises workplace cultures that deter parenthood. Implementation: Enforce through annual audits. Expected Impact: Boosts TFR by ~0.05. Judging by their impact in other countries, these policies would together raise the TFR to about 2.0, very close to the replacement threshold. To undo the damage done by fifty years of low rates, however, something even more radical is needed. Thanks for reading Nick Griffin Beyond the Pale! Subscribe for free and help spread the fact that “Griffin is back!” Fortunately, there are two further measures which would be completely game-changers: A total ban on abortion. As a ‘stick’ for those who find babies inconvenient, this would have an even bigger impact. Britain has murdered 10 million of its own babies since 1968. The USA saw 1,140,000 abortions in 2024, while 3,622,673 children were born. The complete unavailability of abortion in all but the genuinely hardest of cases would certainly encourage the greater use of contraception, but the raw figures are stunning: The abolition of abortion would increase the US birth rate by around 45%, to a TFR of 2.25 - more than all the other proposals put together. A government particularly concerned about the low birth rate might decide to appease liberals by leaving various ‘minorities’ free to murder their unborn children, but good Christians would be very uncomfortable with such lethal affirmative action! And one for America – Real Immigration Reform. Streamline immigration for young, family-oriented, white migrants, offering permanent residency to those who have two or more children within 10 years of arrival. Implementation: Rather than importing low-grade, welfare-dependent migrants from low IQ, high-crime societies and failed states, America only has to open its doors once more to young, Christian, Europeans, to enjoy a sustained flow of millions of hard-working, wealth-producing, law-abiding and highly assimilable migrants. Expected Impact: Would be limited only by the number of young Europeans who could be let in during any given period without adversely impacting wages. The policy, of course, would do immense damage to the nations losing so many bright young people, but the UK and most of Europe have already taken civilizational suicide pills through mass Islamic and African immigration, rampant abortion, feminism and native TFR’s of 1.0 or below. THE KICKER One final point: I am not for one moment saying that any of this will be done; only that this is what would have to be done to avoid Britain as we know it, and the American dream, ending in the same population crash which is set to destroy the rest of the modern world by the end of this century. For young readers, in the years ahead when you see that it is not done, remember that – while you cannot save society – you certainly can give your own family line a fighting chance of survival, and be part of the “faithful remnant” who will one day take and repopulate the lands left empty by the Great Dying. Because the solution to childlessness is really very simple: Have children! Thanks for reading Nick Griffin Beyond the Pale! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. As for political action which CAN make a lasting difference, whatever, the ruling elite do, there’ll be plenty of material here about that in the weeks and months ahead, so subscribe, restack snd share this now! Many thanks. Note for American readers: I write articles for the American Free Press. Take a look and give this real American Christian patriot newspaper your support Nick Griffin Beyond the Pale is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Nick Griffin Beyond the Pale that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless they enable payments. |
The Demographic Winter - How Bad Will It Be?
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Many people are now vaguely aware of the concept of the ‘demographic winter’ and the fact that it is a very serious problem for a modern advanced nation. Elon Musk in particular has repeatedly raised the issue, although his ideal “solution” appears to be importing millions of India tech workers and their families.
But few understand just how serious the issue really is. Before we even begin to examine possible solutions of any worth, it is therefore necessary to explain that the ongoing birth rate crash is not a matter of us all facing a shortage of care workers in nursing homes; it is an existential crisis.
Opponents of immigration already grasp the threat posed by the combination of below-replacement level of all European nations with continued Third World immigration and the higher birth rates of certain ‘minorities’. But even those who talk about the “Great Replacement” seem to have little grasp of the fact that the driving force of this looming catastrophe is not really “their” numbers growing so much as the fact that ours are going to crash.
Strip out the higher birth rates of recently arrived immigrants and a (shrinking) number of ‘minorities’ and the average birth rate in most European countries (Britain included) is no more than 1.5.
The non-Hispanic white total fertility rate (TFR) in the United States is likewise now barely above 1.5 children per woman.
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Total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. A TFR of 2.1 is required to maintain a stable population. At 1.5, the non-Hispanic white population - the historic majority that built America - is reproducing at a rate far below replacement level. This is not a temporary dip but part of a decades-long trend driven by a toxic cocktail of factors, including the drive to entice and push women into work, economic hardship and the Long War against white nations and Christian values.
If this TFR remains constant, the consequences in the UK, USA and Europe over the next 100 years will be catastrophic. A population with a TFR of 1.5 halves roughly every two breeding generations – a mere 50 years.
100 million people today would shrink to about 50 million by 2075 and 25 million by 2125. Not a drop of a quarter but a collapse to a quarter.
To put this into historical perspective, the notorious Black Death of the 14th century killed about one-third of the entire population of Europe. The Great Dying, now irrevocably baked into the demographics of the entire industrialised world, is going to kill a bigger proportion of the population than two Black Deaths.
Demographic change takes place geometrically, not arithmetically. Exponential decline, or growth, compounds over time. If you borrow money from a bank, secured against your home, and do not have enough income to pay back the interest, it will mount up until it becomes completely unrepayable. Sooner or later, you will lose your home.
When the same awesome power of geometric progression is at play with a slow-breeding majority and a fast-breeding minority, the shrinking majority will eventually lose their country.
Even maintaining a TFR of 1.5 becomes increasingly difficult as the population ages. Economic pressures - such as stagnant wages, housing costs, and childcare expenses - already deter young couples from having children.
Smaller cohorts of young people mean fewer marriages and births, creating a negative feedback loop pushing the TFR down towards 1.0, as seen in countries like South Korea and Singapore.
The shrinking population feedback loop reduces the tax base, limiting government revenue for infrastructure, defense, and social programmes. Schools close due to fewer students, communities hollow out, and rural areas—often strongholds of traditional values—become ghost towns.
This process is already well-advanced in Japan and China, where lack of immigration means that the problems are not temporarily hidden by influxes of newcomers, as they are in Britain, the USA and other Western nations.
Faced with the growing realization that shrinking TFR is a civilisation-wrecker, some particularly forward-looking nations are now making increasingly bold – one could say ‘desperate’ – efforts to reverse the decline. Japan, South Korea, Poland and Hungary are particularly notable for introducing measures to boost their birth rates without recourse to mass immigration, a short-termist “solution” which in fact only speeds up the rate at which the native-born are replaced.
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Demographic basket case South Korea is another place where government efforts to turn things around have failed to counter the toxic effects of feminism, capitalism and the deification of all thigns material - aks the worship of Mammon
The problem is that financial incentives and other government-sponsored efforts to boost birthrates tend primarily to bring forward the time at which young families are formed and have children. They are much less effective at encouraging those who would otherwise have remained childless to change their minds and have children. Thus, they tend to produce temporary baby-bulges, which quickly drop off again.
The experience of Hungary is an example. In 2011, the country’s TFR was down to 1.23. While still significantly higher than the figure for indigenous Greeks, Italians and Spaniards, this is a catastrophically low figure. Sustained over 100 years, it would see the population crash by around 85%.
The Orban government responded by introducing successive rafts of measures, including marriage support, tax benefits, generous subsidies for houses and cars for families, and even financial support for grandmothers to retire early and help to look after grandchildren.
After spending huge sums on all this, the government was rewarded by a rise in the TFR to 1.59 by 2021. From there, however, it slipped back to 1.51. Further major spending efforts have now pushed it back up to 1.56, but it is a clear case of diminishing return on investment.
Nationalists elsewhere who point to Hungary as an example of action turning things around are missing the point very badly. Because all the effort and all the expenditure, which will soon have been going on for 15 years, have not turned things around in any seriously meaningful way. To be blunt, they have done little more than stabilise the situation at a level of ‘catastrophic’, rather than ‘suicidal’.
To ‘turn around’ even Hungary’s improved TFR of 1.5, once it has been sustained for a few decades, would take increasing it to 3 – and keeping that doubled rate of childbirth going for 75 years. That is the terrifying reality of the perilous situation created once even one generation of low breeding has slashed the number of females under the age of 35.
The TFR of the non-Hispanic white population of the USA has probably been below replacement rate since the early 1970s. Britain is in the same boat. That’s more than two breeding generations of compound decline. Many European nations are even worse off.
This is a civilisation-wrecking catastrophe. Not a possible one, or a threatened one, but one happening right now, all around us. For very special reasons, there is only one Western nation which might just be able to fend off this impending disaster.
That nation is the United States of America, but a serious move to save the USA would only make the situation for the rest of the white world even worse.
We will look at what could be done by a government which was really serious about moving from Demographic Winter to Spring in my next article. Don’t miss it, subscribe for free!
This essay is based on an article of mine published in the American Free Press. American readers especially should take a look:
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Let us look at the example of Erika Kirk. In the face of unimaginable pain, she demonstrated what the world cannot comprehend. At her husband Charlie’s memorial, she looked into the camera and addressed his killer directly, saying, “I forgive you.” This was not weakness. This was spiritual warfare. It takes a strength the world does not possess to look into the face of pure evil and refuse to let it claim your soul.
But her forgiveness was personal. It was sacred. It was for her. It was not for us.
She clarified this herself in a moment of raw honesty in an interview a few days prior. “I’ve had so many people ask, ‘Do you feel anger toward this man? Like, do you want to seek the death penalty?’ I’ll be honest. I told our lawyer, I want the government to decide this. I do not want that man’s blood on my ledger.”
Do you see the profound wisdom here? She entrusted justice to the very institution God established to execute it. She freed her spirit from vengeance so that the state could fulfill its God given duty without emotional interference. Her personal grace does not pardon the killer. It condemns him all the more. It places the burden of justice squarely where it belongs, on the shoulders of the governing authorities who are called to be agents of wrath.
This is not slave morality. This is sovereign morality.
Christianity is not a faith of slaves. It is the faith of crusaders who marched across continents. It is the faith of kings who built cathedrals and codified law. It is the faith that created the West. Ours is a God who commands armies, overthrows kingdoms, and carries our righteous justice against the wicked. Our Savior did not turn the other cheek to the evil money changers in the temple. He made a whip of cords and drove them out.
When we speak of Christ driving out the money changers, we see His righteous anger against the corruption of holy things. It is a powerful image of personal confrontation. But the destruction of Jerusalem in 70 AD is something far grander and more terrifying. It is God Himself, the same Jesus who preached on the hills of Galilee, bringing covenantal, national judgment upon an entire people who had rejected Him.
This was not a random act of historical violence. It was the decisive, prophesied end of an age. The Old Covenant, with its temple, its sacrifices, and its priesthood, was made obsolete. It was a system that had reached its fulfillment and its end in Christ. By rejecting the Messiah, the Jewish leadership of Israel sealed the fate of their entire political and religious order.
God did not simply warn them. He dismantled their world. The Temple, the very center of their universe, was not just damaged. It was obliterated. Stone was not left upon stone, just as He said it would be. This was a terrifying act of divine surgery and justice. The old, corrupted vessel was smashed to make way for the new.
What was established in its place? The New Covenant. A covenant not written on stone tablets in a building in Jerusalem, but on the hearts of His people from every tribe, tongue, and nation. A covenant mediated by Christ Himself, our eternal High Priest. A covenant that created a new nation, a holy nation, the Church, built upon the apostles and prophets with Christ Jesus Himself as the cornerstone.
This is the God we serve. A God of devastating, righteous judgment and glorious, sovereign redemption. He does not merely get angry at sin. He brings eras to a close. He shatters kingdoms that are in rebellion against Him. He does not negotiate with evil. He removes it.
This is the opposite of weakness. This is ultimate strength. This is the cosmic King exercising His authority over history itself.
So when we speak of justice today, we are not speaking of a human invention. We are appealing to a divine principle. We are calling for our society to align itself with the reality of God’s order. A society that refuses to judge evil, that protects the wicked and punishes the good, is a society in rebellion against the very fabric of creation. It is inviting disorder. History shows us what happens to nations that persistently and arrogantly defy God’s law.
The destruction of Jerusalem stands as an eternal monument. It is a warning to all nations and all peoples that God is not mocked. He is a God of covenant faithfulness, which means He rewards righteousness and He punishes evil. He overthrew a kingdom to establish His Church. He will judge again.
Our call for justice, for law and order, for the punishment of evildoers, is not just a political opinion. It is a theological imperative. It is a desire to see our nation reflect, however imperfectly, the righteous justice of the King who judges rightly.
The call to forgive is a call to personal liberation, not public capitulation. It is what allows a Christian soldier to fight with a clean heart and a steady hand. He does not fight for hatred. He fights for order. For his people. For what is right. For the glory of God.
Our duty as a society facing this evil is not to forgive. It is to judge. It is to punish. It is to protect. We must demand concrete and swift action. We must insist that evil is met with overwhelming force. We must have laws that punish criminals, borders that defend our citizens, and a culture that celebrates strength and honor instead of death and destruction.
We honor Erika Kirk’s breathtaking strength by being strong ourselves. By ensuring that the man who murdered her husband faces the full penalty of the law. By building a society where such evil is not tolerated, coddled, or explained away, but stamped out.
Let the world see this. Let them see a woman who is spiritually free and a nation that is physically defended. Let them see that our faith forges the strongest souls and the strongest nations. We are not slaves. We are sons. We are heirs. We are conquerors. And we will have justice.
We must have the courage to hold both truths in tension without letting the world distort them. We champion grace, but we also demand justice for the wicked. We build, we create, we protect, and we conquer the darkness with the overwhelming power of Truth and the sword entrusted to the government by God. We are the heirs of a faith that has moved mountains and toppled empires.
Let us start acting like it.
Andrew Torba
CEO, Gab AI Inc
Christ is King
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